![]() Despite popular opposition, Putin ordered a partial military mobilization on September 21. Putin appears to be following this playbook. The Russian military could also resort to using more heavy and sophisticated weaponry. They raised the prospect of mobilization (also noting the unpopularity of this move) and targeting of critical Ukrainian infrastructure - including water and electricity as part of a revised conflict strategy. ![]() In private discussions with one of us, Moscow-based Russian analysts have underscored how recent losses signal Russia’s need to change its tactics and escalate the war. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was blunter with Putin, telling him he should “move onto the path of peace.” On the margins of late September’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan, Putin discussed with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Xi’s unspecified “concerns” with the war. International pressure from some of his key allies is also increasing. Some of the most ardent channels have called for the firing of the military leadership, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. The so-called Russian “milbloggers,” whose blogs and social media commentary represent ultra-nationalist support for the Russian invasion, had long been critical of Russia’s military performance. Russia’s battlefield defeat has had political repercussions. Within days, Ukrainian forces recaptured much of the territory Russia had slowly gained over the preceding months, liberating over 3,000 square miles. Over the past few weeks, Kyiv has managed to score several key battlefield victories, starting in the southern Kherson region and followed by an even more successful counteroffensive in the north, in the Kharkiv region. Russian corpses littered the road as Ukrainian forces moved in amid reports of Russian troops fleeing the front lines, dramatic signs of Russia’s continuing reversals. Ukrainian forces recently recaptured the strategic city of Lyman in the Donestk region and continue to push further east. Even as Moscow illegally annexed areas of Ukraine, Russian forces have been in retreat in the face of a successful Ukrainian push to regain territory. Ukraine’s recent counteroffensives mark yet another turning point in war. (Ivor Prickett/The New York Times) Military and Political Pressure Amid Ukraine’s swift counteroffensives, Putin has raised the specter of nuclear confrontation. A Ukrainian tank in the recently recaptured area north of the town of Lyman, in the Donetsk Region, Ukraine, Oct. ![]() The coming weeks will be critical as Putin pursues nuclear brinksmanship - possibly even repositioning tactical nuclear weapons - while actually seeking an exit. By raising the specter of a nuclear confrontation twice in recent weeks, Putin may in fact be seeking a way out of his dilemma marked by Russia’s strategic failure in Ukraine. Faced with the prospect of stark losses - potentially leaving Russia in a worse position than before its February 24 invasion - Moscow may be embarked on an “escalate to de-escalate” strategy. Vladimir Putin is under increased pressure as Russia continues to lose ground inside Ukraine.
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